Xpect
Braga vs Gil Vicente: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Braga 6.0, Gil Vicente 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Braga 2.1, Gil Vicente 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 41%.
Result
Our model: Braga win 58%, draw 24%, Gil Vicente win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Braga: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Gil Vicente: last five matches — D-L-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Braga — 8, Gil Vicente — 7 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Braga at home and Gil Vicente away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Braga | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 51% | 22% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 49% |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Braga won 19, 7 draws, Gil Vicente won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals, 10.2 corners, 3.1 yellow cards.
- 14.02.2026: Gil Vicente 2:1 Braga
- 14.09.2025: Braga 0:1 Gil Vicente
- 09.02.2025: Braga 2:0 Gil Vicente
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Our model: Braga 58%, draw 24%, Gil Vicente 19%.