Xpect
Yellow cards predictions for today
Expected yellow cards for each match and the probability of over 4.5 from our model. Top events are the matches that differ most from a typical game in their competition.
On the match page you will also find the referee: how many yellow cards per match they show in our database, next to the competition average.
Top yellow cards events
| Guidonia Montecelio 1937 — Ostia Mare Italy · Serie C – Girone B | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Barletta — Team Altamura Italy · Serie C – Girone C | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Giugliano — Savoia Italy · Serie C – Girone C | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Potenza — Scafatese Italy · Serie C – Girone C | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Andorra — Gibraltar Europe · Nations League | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Ska-khabarovsk — Leningradets Russia · First League | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Sorrento — SS Monopoli Italy · Serie C – Girone C | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Audace Cerignola — Inter U23 Italy · Serie C – Girone C | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Ravenna — Forli Italy · Serie C – Girone B | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Lithuania — Liechtenstein Europe · Nations League | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Chapecoense-sc — Vasco DA Gama Brazil · Serie A | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Liechtenstein — Azerbaijan Europe · Nations League | 🔒 | 🔒 |
All matches with our numbers
Today, Wednesday 11 November
Japan · J.League Cup
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale — Kashiwa Reysol | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Vissel Kobe — Machida Zelvia | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos — Kashima | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Urawa — Cerezo Osaka | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Colombia · Primera B
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popayan — Ind. Yumbo | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Envigado — Union Magdalena | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Real Cundinamarca — Real Cartagena | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Mexico · Liga de Expansión
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monarcas — Leones Negros UDG | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Piratas — CA La Paz | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Brazil · Serie B
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina — Nautico Recife | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Tomorrow, Thursday 12 November
Colombia · Primera A
Europe · Nations League
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye — Belgium | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Armenia — Cyprus | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Italy — France | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Czechia — Spain | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| England — Croatia | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Albania — Finland | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| San Marino — Belarus | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Montenegro — Latvia | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Colombia · Primera B
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quindio — Tigres FC | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Spain · Copa del Rey
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvo Sotelo — Albacete | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Guatemala · Liga Nacional
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora — Mixco | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Uruguay · Primera División
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo — Progreso | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Friday 13 November
Europe · Nations League
Russia · First League
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelyabinsk — Veles | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Ska-khabarovsk — Leningradets | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| FC Sochi — Shinnik Yaroslavl | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| FC UFA — Spartak Kostroma | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Volga Ulyanovsk — Torpedo Moskva | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Montenegro · First League
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jezero — Buducnost Podgorica | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Algeria · Ligue 1
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JS Saoura — Khenchela | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina — Cacereño | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
France · Coupe de France
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon FCO — Orléans | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Spain · Segunda
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes — Burgos | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Italy · Serie C – Girone A
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto — Dolomiti Bellunesi | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Italy · Serie C – Girone B
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina — Campobasso FC | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Uruguay · Primera División
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque — Racing Montevideo | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2
| Time | Match | Expected | Cards over 4.5 | Competition avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnastic — Real Madrid II | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Questions and answers
How are the corners and cards predictions calculated?
Our model uses the last 30 matches of each team and pulls them toward the competition average. It was tested on 126,835 matches: every forecast used only games played before it.
Where do the result and goals percentages come from?
From our own model. Who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents: wins over weak sides count for less, so a team promoted from a lower division gets no extra credit. How many goals comes from the last 30 matches of each team compared with the competition average, with a Poisson distribution. Tested on 445,384 matches since July 2023, each forecast using only games played before it, it is more accurate than the average match of the competition (Brier score: result 0.597 vs 0.642, over 2.5 goals 0.236 vs 0.238).
Does Xpect take bets?
No. Xpect is analytics only: no bets, no odds and no links to bookmakers. For adults 18+.