Yellow cards predictions for today

Expected yellow cards for each match and the probability of over 4.5 from our model. Top events are the matches that differ most from a typical game in their competition.

On the match page you will also find the referee: how many yellow cards per match they show in our database, next to the competition average.

Top yellow cards events

18:45 UTC	Norway — Portugal Europe · Nations League	Yellow cards under 3.5	65% typical match 37%
18:45 UTC	Greece — Netherlands Europe · Nations League	Yellow cards under 3.5	58% typical match 37%
18:45 UTC	Wales — Norway Europe · Nations League	Yellow cards under 3.5	57% typical match 37%
14:00 UTC	Shinnik Yaroslavl — Ska-khabarovsk Russia · First League	Yellow cards under 4.5	71% typical match 51%
14:00 UTC	Sutton Utd — Forest Green England · National League	Yellow cards over 4.5	53% typical match 34%
16:00 UTC	UTS Rabat — FUS Rabat Morocco · Botola Pro	Yellow cards over 4.5	64% typical match 45%
16:00 UTC	Serbia — Netherlands Europe · Nations League	Yellow cards under 3.5	56% typical match 37%
18:30 UTC	Eldense — Oviedo Spain · Segunda	Yellow cards under 4.5	61% typical match 43%
13:30 UTC	Trefelin — The New Saints Wales · Premier League	Yellow cards under 3.5	61% typical match 44%
18:45 UTC	Tamworth — Sutton Utd England · National League	Yellow cards over 4.5	51% typical match 34%
13:00 UTC	Volga Ulyanovsk — Leningradets Russia · First League	Yellow cards under 4.5	68% typical match 51%
13:30 UTC	Cambrian & Clydach — Llandudno Wales · Premier League	Yellow cards over 4.5	54% typical match 37%

All matches with our numbers

Today, Saturday 26 September

England · National League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:00 UTC	Aldershot Town — Tamworth	4.4	45%	34%
14:00 UTC	Boston United — AFC Fylde	4.0	37%	34%
14:00 UTC	Carlisle — Woking	4.0	36%	34%
14:00 UTC	Harrogate Town — Eastleigh	3.5	27%	34%
14:00 UTC	Kidderminster Harriers — Yeovil Town	4.3	43%	34%
14:00 UTC	Scunthorpe — Hartlepool	4.0	37%	34%
14:00 UTC	Solihull Moors — Boreham Wood	3.8	33%	34%
14:00 UTC	Southend — Barrow	3.7	32%	34%
14:00 UTC	Sutton Utd — Forest Green	4.8	53%	34%
14:00 UTC	Wealdstone — Gateshead	3.9	34%	34%
14:00 UTC	Worthing — FC Halifax Town	4.4	45%	34%

Europe · Nations League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
13:00 UTC	Slovenia — Scotland	3.9	36%	43%
16:00 UTC	San Marino — Finland	3.9	35%	43%
16:00 UTC	Faroe Islands — Kazakhstan	3.8	33%	43%
16:00 UTC	Iceland — Estonia	3.8	34%	43%
16:00 UTC	Bulgaria — Luxembourg	5.0	56%	43%
18:45 UTC	England — Spain	3.8	34%	43%
18:45 UTC	Czechia — Croatia	3.8	33%	43%
18:45 UTC	Albania — Belarus	3.8	33%	43%
18:45 UTC	Slovakia — Moldova	4.4	45%	43%
18:45 UTC	North Macedonia — Switzerland	3.9	34%	43%

England · League Two

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:00 UTC	Bristol Rovers — Exeter City	3.9	36%	32%
14:00 UTC	Cheltenham — Chesterfield	3.8	34%	32%
14:00 UTC	Fleetwood Town — Rochdale	3.9	35%	32%
14:00 UTC	Newport County — Grimsby	3.8	34%	32%
14:00 UTC	Rotherham — Crewe	3.4	26%	32%
14:00 UTC	Shrewsbury — Colchester	3.9	34%	32%
14:00 UTC	Swindon Town — Accrington ST	3.3	23%	32%
14:00 UTC	Tranmere — Walsall	3.7	32%	32%
14:00 UTC	York — Gillingham	3.9	36%	32%
16:30 UTC	Oldham — Salford City	3.8	34%	32%

Japan · J2 League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
08:00 UTC	Oita Trinita — Fujieda MYFC	2.9	17%	11%
08:00 UTC	Iwaki — Vegalta Sendai	2.8	16%	11%
08:00 UTC	Montedio Yamagata — Sagan Tosu	2.8	15%	11%
08:00 UTC	Blaublitz Akita — Albirex Niigata	2.8	15%	11%
08:00 UTC	Omiya Ardija — Ventforet Kofu	3.1	21%	11%
08:00 UTC	Kataller Toyama — Yokohama FC	3.0	18%	11%
08:00 UTC	Imabari — Shonan Bellmare	2.9	17%	11%

Wales · Premier League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
13:30 UTC	Barry Town — GAP Connah S Quay FC	4.3	43%	37%
13:30 UTC	Cambrian & Clydach — Llandudno	4.9	54%	37%
13:30 UTC	Cardiff MET — Caernarfon Town	3.8	33%	37%
13:30 UTC	Colwyn Bay — Haverfordwest County AFC	3.9	34%	37%
13:30 UTC	Flint Town United — Ammanford AFC	3.8	34%	37%
13:30 UTC	Penybont — Airbus UK	3.9	35%	37%
13:30 UTC	Trefelin — The New Saints	3.2	21%	37%

Netherlands · Eerste Divisie

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:30 UTC	Heracles — Vitesse	3.8	32%	24%
18:00 UTC	Emmen — FC OSS	3.9	34%	24%
18:00 UTC	FC Volendam — VVV Venlo	3.5	28%	24%
18:00 UTC	MVV — Helmond Sport	3.4	25%	24%
18:00 UTC	NAC Breda — FC Eindhoven	3.2	23%	24%
18:00 UTC	Roda — Waalwijk	3.5	27%	24%

Argentina · Primera Nacional

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
18:30 UTC	CA Estudiantes — San Miguel	5.2	60%	54%
19:00 UTC	All Boys — Colon Santa Fe	5.1	57%	54%
19:00 UTC	Ciudad de Bolívar — Chaco For Ever	4.6	49%	54%
19:00 UTC	Quilmes — Club Atlético Güemes	4.3	43%	54%
22:00 UTC	Deportivo Madryn — Central Norte	4.8	53%	54%
23:00 UTC	Colegiales — Chacarita Juniors	5.1	58%	54%

Belarus · First League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
11:00 UTC	Niva — Volna	3.9	35%	38%
11:30 UTC	Shakhter Soligorsk — Minsk II	4.1	38%	38%
12:00 UTC	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — Orsha	3.5	28%	38%
12:30 UTC	FC Slutsk — Gomel II	3.6	29%	38%
13:00 UTC	Uni Minsk — Ostrovets FC	4.3	42%	38%

USA · MLS

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
23:30 UTC	Philadelphia Union — Orlando City SC	4.5	47%	38%
23:30 UTC	Atlanta United FC — New York City FC	4.3	44%	38%
23:30 UTC	CF Montreal — FC Cincinnati	4.1	38%	38%
23:30 UTC	Charlotte — Chicago Fire	4.4	45%	38%
23:30 UTC	New York Red Bulls — St. Louis City	4.1	39%	38%

Mexico · Liga MX

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:00 UTC	Atlante FC — Monterrey	4.0	36%	47%
03:00 UTC	Club Tijuana — Atlas	4.5	46%	47%
22:50 UTC	Cruz Azul — Toluca	4.2	40%	47%
23:07 UTC	Guadalajara Chivas — Club Queretaro	4.8	51%	47%

Finland · Ykkönen

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
11:30 UTC	OLS — PKKU	4.3	44%	40%
13:00 UTC	TPV — FC jazz	3.8	33%	40%
14:00 UTC	VJS — KPV-j	3.9	36%	40%
15:15 UTC	Rops — SalPa	3.9	35%	40%

England · League One

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:00 UTC	Cambridge United — AFC Wimbledon	3.1	21%	32%
14:00 UTC	Plymouth — Burton Albion	4.0	38%	32%
14:00 UTC	Stockport County — Peterborough	3.5	28%	32%
14:00 UTC	Wycombe — Reading	3.6	30%	32%

Canada · Premier League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:00 UTC	Cavalry FC — Supra du Quebec	4.7	50%	52%
20:00 UTC	HFX Wanderers FC — Atlético Ottawa	4.6	49%	52%
23:00 UTC	Vancouver FC — Forge	4.3	43%	52%

Colombia · Primera A

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:15 UTC	Once Caldas — Bucaramanga	6.0	72%	67%
21:00 UTC	Deportivo Pereira — Internacional de Bogota	5.2	59%	67%
23:15 UTC	Cucuta — Llaneros	5.8	69%	67%

Russia · First League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
09:00 UTC	Chelyabinsk — Enisey	4.0	38%	49%
11:30 UTC	Spartak Kostroma — Ural	4.1	39%	49%
13:00 UTC	Volga Ulyanovsk — Leningradets	3.7	32%	49%

Ukraine · Persha Liga

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
09:00 UTC	Inhulets — Prykarpattia	4.2	41%	47%
10:00 UTC	UCSA — Viktoriya Mykolaivka	4.4	45%	47%
11:00 UTC	Probiy Horodenka — Lokomotiv Kyiv	3.9	35%	47%

Finland · Ykkösliiga

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:00 UTC	EIF — SJK Akatemia	3.5	27%	43%
13:00 UTC	JIPPO — PK-35	3.6	30%	43%
16:00 UTC	Klubi-04 — JäPS	4.1	40%	43%

Spain · Segunda

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:00 UTC	AD Ceuta FC — Real Sociedad II	5.4	62%	57%
14:15 UTC	Granada CF — FC Andorra	5.5	65%	57%
16:30 UTC	Tenerife — Cadiz	4.8	52%	57%

Uruguay · Primera División

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:00 UTC	Progreso — Racing Montevideo	5.7	67%	64%
18:00 UTC	Cerro Largo — Club Nacional	5.5	64%	64%
21:30 UTC	Penarol — Boston River	5.5	64%	64%

Brazil · Serie B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
19:30 UTC	Nautico Recife — Sport Recife	5.0	56%	54%
19:30 UTC	Operario-PR — Ceara	5.2	59%	54%
21:30 UTC	Goias — Atletico Goianiense	4.6	49%	54%

Serbia · Prva Liga

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:00 UTC	Semendrija 1924 — OFK Vršac	4.8	53%	47%
14:00 UTC	Borac Cacak — TSC Backa Topola	5.0	56%	47%

Morocco · Botola Pro

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
16:00 UTC	UTS Rabat — FUS Rabat	5.5	64%	45%
18:00 UTC	Difaa EL Jadida — CODM Meknès	4.5	47%	45%

Colombia · Primera B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
19:00 UTC	Tigres FC — Real Santander	5.1	58%	59%
22:00 UTC	Popayan — Patriotas	5.3	61%	59%

Paraguay · Primera División

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
19:30 UTC	Rubio NU — 2 de Mayo	4.5	46%	53%
22:00 UTC	Sportivo Trinidense — Cerro Porteno	4.4	45%	53%

Bulgaria · Second League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
13:00 UTC	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Marek	5.0	57%	57%

Tomorrow, Sunday 27 September

Argentina · Primera Nacional

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
18:30 UTC	Almagro — Nueva Chicago	5.0	56%	54%
18:30 UTC	Almirante Brown — Acassuso	4.9	54%	54%
18:30 UTC	Atlanta — Agropecuario	5.2	59%	54%
18:30 UTC	Defensores De Belgrano — Ferro Carril Oeste	5.2	60%	54%
18:30 UTC	Los Andes — Deportivo Moron	5.5	64%	54%
19:00 UTC	Atletico Mitre — San Telmo	4.3	43%	54%
19:00 UTC	Patronato — San Martin S.J.	5.2	59%	54%
19:30 UTC	Deportivo Maipu — Temperley	5.2	59%	54%
19:30 UTC	Midland — Tristan Suarez	4.6	49%	54%
20:00 UTC	Racing Cordoba — Godoy Cruz	5.4	63%	54%
21:00 UTC	Gimnasia Y Tiro — Atletico DE Rafaela	5.0	55%	54%

USA · MLS

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
00:30 UTC	FC Dallas — Los Angeles FC	4.4	45%	38%
00:30 UTC	Seattle Sounders — Minnesota United FC	3.7	32%	38%
00:30 UTC	Nashville SC — Toronto FC	3.6	29%	38%
00:30 UTC	Austin — San Diego	4.4	44%	38%
00:30 UTC	Houston Dynamo — Sporting Kansas City	4.1	39%	38%
01:30 UTC	Real Salt Lake — New England Revolution	4.1	39%	38%
02:30 UTC	Los Angeles Galaxy — Colorado Rapids	4.5	48%	38%
02:30 UTC	Vancouver Whitecaps — DC United	4.6	48%	38%
02:30 UTC	San Jose Earthquakes — Portland Timbers	4.1	39%	38%
23:00 UTC	Columbus Crew — Inter Miami	4.1	39%	38%

Europe · Nations League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
13:00 UTC	Lithuania — Azerbaijan	4.3	42%	43%
16:00 UTC	Serbia — Netherlands	3.4	26%	43%
16:00 UTC	Denmark — Wales	4.1	39%	43%
16:00 UTC	Austria — Kosovo	4.1	39%	43%
16:00 UTC	Gibraltar — Andorra	4.5	46%	43%
18:45 UTC	Germany — Greece	3.9	35%	43%
18:45 UTC	Norway — Portugal	3.0	18%	43%
18:45 UTC	Israel — Ireland	3.9	36%	43%

Bulgaria · Second League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
11:00 UTC	Vihren — Nesebar	4.8	53%	57%
13:30 UTC	Beroe — Yantra 2019	5.0	56%	57%
14:00 UTC	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Montana	4.5	46%	57%
14:00 UTC	CSKA Sofia II — Sportist Svoge	4.5	46%	57%
16:00 UTC	Fratria — Spartak Pleven	4.5	47%	57%
16:00 UTC	Hebar 1918 — Dobrudzha	4.9	54%	57%
16:00 UTC	Ludogorets II — Etar Veliko Tarnovo	4.9	55%	57%

Spain · Segunda

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:00 UTC	Valladolid — Cordoba	5.2	60%	57%
14:15 UTC	Mallorca — Almeria	4.5	47%	57%
16:30 UTC	Burgos — Eldense	4.8	52%	57%
16:30 UTC	Eibar — Las Palmas	4.3	43%	57%
19:00 UTC	Oviedo — Sporting Gijon	4.3	44%	57%

Uruguay · Primera División

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
00:30 UTC	Atletico Torque — Deportivo Maldonado	5.7	67%	64%
14:00 UTC	Central Espanol — Liverpool Montevideo	6.2	74%	64%
18:00 UTC	Juventud — Cerro	5.9	70%	64%
21:00 UTC	Defensor Sporting — Danubio	5.4	62%	64%

Colombia · Primera A

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:20 UTC	Junior — Independiente Medellin	5.3	61%	67%
21:00 UTC	Jaguares — Alianza Valledupar	5.8	68%	67%
23:05 UTC	Fortaleza FC — Deportes Tolima	4.8	52%	67%

Mexico · Liga MX

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
03:05 UTC	Santos Laguna — CF Pachuca	4.6	50%	47%
03:10 UTC	Tigres UANL — Puebla	4.1	39%	47%
18:00 UTC	U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Atletico San Luis	3.7	31%	47%

Ukraine · Persha Liga

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
09:00 UTC	Metal Kharkiv — Chernihiv	4.2	42%	47%
11:00 UTC	Oleksandria — Yarud Mariupol'	3.9	36%	47%
12:30 UTC	Nyva Ternopil — Ahrobiznes Volochysk	4.0	38%	47%

Brazil · Serie B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
14:00 UTC	Criciuma — Avai	4.6	49%	54%
19:00 UTC	CRB — Cuiaba	4.3	43%	54%
21:30 UTC	Fortaleza EC — Athletic Club	4.4	45%	54%

Morocco · Botola Pro

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
16:00 UTC	Moghreb Tetouan — Renaissance Berkane	4.4	46%	45%
18:00 UTC	Maghreb Fès — CR Khemis Zemamra	4.7	51%	45%
20:00 UTC	Kawkab Marrakech — Hassania Agadir	4.7	51%	45%

Russia · First League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
09:30 UTC	FC UFA — Torpedo Moskva	4.0	37%	49%
14:00 UTC	Shinnik Yaroslavl — Ska-khabarovsk	3.6	29%	49%

Belarus · First League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:00 UTC	Osipovichy — Bumprom	4.2	40%	38%
13:00 UTC	Dinamo Minsk II — Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	3.3	25%	38%

Colombia · Primera B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
19:00 UTC	Envigado — Depor FC	5.4	62%	59%
22:00 UTC	Barranquilla — Real Cundinamarca	5.0	56%	59%

South Korea · K League 1

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
10:00 UTC	Gangwon FC — Incheon United	4.1	39%	28%

Netherlands · Eerste Divisie

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
12:30 UTC	De Graafschap — Den Bosch	3.2	23%	24%

Canada · Premier League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
18:00 UTC	York United — Pacific FC	4.8	53%	52%

Monday 28 September

Europe · Nations League

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
16:00 UTC	Georgia — Ukraine	4.2	41%	43%
16:00 UTC	Armenia — Montenegro	4.0	38%	43%
16:00 UTC	Latvia — Cyprus	3.9	36%	43%
18:45 UTC	Belgium — France	3.6	29%	43%
18:45 UTC	Türkiye — Italy	4.0	38%	43%
18:45 UTC	Northern Ireland — Hungary	4.3	43%	43%
18:45 UTC	Sweden — Poland	3.8	34%	43%
18:45 UTC	Romania — Bosnia and Herzegovina	4.4	45%	43%

Serbia · Prva Liga

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
16:00 UTC	Dubočica — Javor	4.9	54%	47%
16:00 UTC	Naftagas — Jedinstvo Ub	5.4	62%	47%
16:00 UTC	OFK Bor 1919 — Metalac GM	4.8	52%	47%
18:00 UTC	Loznica — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	4.5	47%	47%

Colombia · Primera B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
20:30 UTC	Ind. Yumbo — Orsomarso	5.5	64%	59%
21:00 UTC	Internacional Palmira — Leones FC	5.2	59%	59%
23:00 UTC	Quindio — Bogota FC	4.9	54%	59%

Mexico · Liga MX

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:00 UTC	Leon — FC Juarez	4.5	47%	47%
03:00 UTC	Necaxa — Club America	4.2	41%	47%

Argentina · Primera Nacional

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
00:00 UTC	Gimnasia Jujuy — San Martin Tucuman	5.3	60%	54%

Colombia · Primera A

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
01:10 UTC	Deportivo Cali — Águilas Doradas	6.1	73%	67%

Spain · Segunda

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
18:30 UTC	Leganes — Castellón	5.0	56%	57%

Brazil · Serie B

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
22:30 UTC	America Mineiro — Juventude	4.4	44%	54%

Uruguay · Primera División

Time	Match	Expected	Cards over 4.5	Competition avg
23:00 UTC	Wanderers — Albion FC	5.3	62%	64%

All numbers in the Xpect app

Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.

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Questions and answers

How are the corners and cards predictions calculated?

Our model uses the last 30 matches of each team and pulls them toward the competition average. It was tested on 126,835 matches: every forecast used only games played before it.

Where do the result percentages come from?

From the market line with the margin removed. On 16,679 matches it was more accurate than our own models, so we show it as it is.

Does Xpect take bets?

No. Xpect is analytics only: no bets, no odds and no links to bookmakers. For adults 18+.