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Cesena vs Avellino: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Cesena 5.2, Avellino 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Cesena 2.0, Avellino 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Cesena win 40%, draw 26%, Avellino win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Cesena: last five matches — W-W-D-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Avellino: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Cesena — 10, Avellino — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cesena at home and Avellino away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cesena | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 22 |
| Win rate | 34% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 50% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Cesena won 3, 2 draws, Avellino won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals, 10.5 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 31.01.2026: Avellino 3:1 Cesena
- 09.11.2025: Cesena 3:0 Avellino
- 10.02.2018: Avellino 1:1 Cesena
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cesena vs Avellino?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Cesena vs Avellino?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Cesena vs Avellino?
Our model: Cesena 40%, draw 26%, Avellino 34%.