Xpect
Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Fatih Karagümrük 5.1, Keçiörengücü 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 37% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 63%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Fatih Karagümrük 2.1, Keçiörengücü 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Fatih Karagümrük win 40%, draw 25%, Keçiörengücü win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük: last five matches — W-W-D-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Keçiörengücü: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Fatih Karagümrük — 10, Keçiörengücü — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Fatih Karagümrük at home and Keçiörengücü away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Fatih Karagümrük | Keçiörengücü | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 44 |
| Win rate | 52% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 44% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Fatih Karagümrük won 4, 1 draws, Keçiörengücü won 3. Per match: 2.8 goals, 13.0 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 27.04.2025: Fatih Karagümrük 1:0 Keçiörengücü
- 22.12.2024: Keçiörengücü 0:1 Fatih Karagümrük
- 12.07.2020: Keçiörengücü 3:0 Fatih Karagümrük
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 37%.
How many yellow cards in Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 49%.
Who is more likely to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?
Our model: Fatih Karagümrük 40%, draw 25%, Keçiörengücü 35%.