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Fluminense vs Palmeiras: prediction and statistics
South America · Copa Libertadores · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Fluminense 5.4, Palmeiras 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Fluminense 2.4, Palmeiras 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: Fluminense win 44%, draw 27%, Palmeiras win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Fluminense: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Palmeiras: last five matches — D-D-D-L-D.
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Fluminense at home and Palmeiras away, 2024–2026.
| Fluminense | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 15 |
| Win rate | 80% | 60% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 7.8 | 11.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 20% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 70% | 40% |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Fluminense won 14, 5 draws, Palmeiras won 13. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.5 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 15.08.2026: Fluminense 3:2 Palmeiras
- 26.02.2026: Palmeiras 2:1 Fluminense
- 23.11.2025: Palmeiras 0:0 Fluminense
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 54%.
Who is more likely to win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model: Fluminense 44%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 29%.