Xpect
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · Süper Lig · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Istanbul Basaksehir 5.2, Gaziantep FK 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Istanbul Basaksehir 2.1, Gaziantep FK 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Istanbul Basaksehir win 52%, draw 23%, Gaziantep FK win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.
Form
Istanbul Basaksehir: last five matches — D-W-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Gaziantep FK: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
Table: Istanbul Basaksehir — 14, Gaziantep FK — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Istanbul Basaksehir at home and Gaziantep FK away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gaziantep FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 38 |
| Win rate | 49% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 68% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 60% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Istanbul Basaksehir won 11, 1 draws, Gaziantep FK won 4. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.8 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 16.05.2026: Gaziantep FK 1:2 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 22.12.2025: Istanbul Basaksehir 5:1 Gaziantep FK
- 20.04.2025: Istanbul Basaksehir 2:1 Gaziantep FK
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model: Istanbul Basaksehir 52%, draw 23%, Gaziantep FK 25%.