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Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mardin 1969 · Fatih Karagümrük
Result
Our model: Mardin 1969 win 32%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Mardin 1969: last five matches — W-W-D-W-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Fatih Karagümrük: last five matches — L-D-L-W-L.
Table: Mardin 1969 — 6, Fatih Karagümrük — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Mardin 1969 at home and Fatih Karagümrük away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mardin 1969 | Fatih Karagümrük | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 23 |
| Win rate | 50% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 25% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 22% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 52% |
Referee
Burak Olcar: 32 matches in our database, 4.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.4); over 4.5 cards in 44% of matches.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model: Mardin 1969 32%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 41%.