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Maringá vs Ferroviária: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie C · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Maringá · Ferroviária
Result
Our model: Maringá win 45%, draw 27%, Ferroviária win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Maringá: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Ferroviária: last five matches — D-L-D-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Maringá — 2, Ferroviária — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Maringá at home and Ferroviária away, 2024–2026.
| Maringá | Ferroviária | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 25 |
| Win rate | 48% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Maringá won 3, 1 draws, Ferroviária won 1. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 04.04.2026: Maringá 3:2 Ferroviária
- 15.07.2023: Ferroviária 1:2 Maringá
- 13.05.2023: Maringá 0:0 Ferroviária
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Maringá vs Ferroviária?
Our model: Maringá 45%, draw 27%, Ferroviária 28%.