Methodology and author

Updated 14 October 2026

Every percentage on Xpect comes from our own models and our own match database — not from bookmaker odds. This page explains where the data comes from, how the models work, how we tested them and who is behind the project.

The data

Our database holds 1,386,216 finished matches since 1993 across 1,042 competitions: national leagues, cups, European and international tournaments. Corners and cards are recorded for about 196,000 matches (mostly from the 2014/15 season), expected goals (xG) for about 18,000.

Results and match statistics come from public sports data sources (ESPN, API-Football, Understat and football-data). Club names from different sources are merged into one team, and forfeits are removed. New results are added every few hours.

Corners and cards model

For each team we take its last 30 matches and pull them toward the competition average, so a short hot or cold streak does not distort the forecast. From the expected totals of both teams we get the probability of every line — for example, over 9.5 corners or over 4.5 yellow cards.

The model was tested on 126,835 matches from 2014 to 2026. Each forecast used only games played before that match — exactly as it works today.

Result and goals model

Who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating that accounts for the strength of opponents and of the league: a win over a weak side counts for less, and a team promoted from a lower division gets no extra credit. How many goals to expect comes from the last 30 matches of each team; the probabilities follow a Poisson distribution.

Tested on 445,384 matches since July 2023, with each forecast made only from earlier games. Brier score (lower is better): 0.597 for the result against 0.642 for the competition average, and 0.236 against 0.238 for over 2.5 goals.

How to read a percentage

A probability is not a promise. An event at 60% should happen in about 6 matches out of 10, not every time. Next to each number we show how often the same event happens in a typical match of the competition, so you can see what makes this match different.

On the results page we publish every finished match — what we showed before kick-off and what happened — without selection.

Author

Xpect is created by Toha, a football analyst who builds the match database and the models and checks their accuracy. The AI analyst in the app is named after him. Questions and corrections: support@xpect.app.

Responsibility

Xpect is analytics for adults 18+. We do not take bets, show no odds and do not link to bookmakers.

Results: what we showed and what happened · Football predictions for today