Xpect
Monza vs Cagliari: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Monza 6.0, Cagliari 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Monza 1.7, Cagliari 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Monza win 29%, draw 26%, Cagliari win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Monza: last five matches — D-W-L-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Cagliari: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 7 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 wins in a row · away
Table: Monza — 16, Cagliari — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Monza at home and Cagliari away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Monza | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 41 |
| Win rate | 10% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 32% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Monza won 1, 1 draws, Cagliari won 2. Per match: 2.2 goals, 11.3 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 30.03.2025: Cagliari 3:0 Monza
- 05.01.2025: Monza 1:2 Cagliari
- 16.03.2024: Monza 1:0 Cagliari
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Monza vs Cagliari?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Monza vs Cagliari?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Monza vs Cagliari?
Our model: Monza 29%, draw 26%, Cagliari 45%.