Sampdoria vs Arezzo: prediction and statistics

Italy · Serie B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off 17:30 UTC

Team stats: Sampdoria · Arezzo

Result

Our model: Sampdoria win 42%, draw 28%, Arezzo win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.

Form

Sampdoria: last five matches — W-D-L-L-W.

3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home

Arezzo: last five matches — L-W-L-W-L.

3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
3 matches without a win · all competitions

Table: Sampdoria — 19, Arezzo — 12 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Sampdoria at home and Arezzo away, 2024/25–2026/27.

	Sampdoria	Arezzo
Matches	41	3
Win rate	41%	67%
Goals scored per match	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded per match	0.9	2.0
Over 2.5 goals	32%	67%
Both teams score	37%	33%
Total corners per match	9.2	6.3
Over 9.5 corners	42%	0%
Total yellow cards per match	5.2	3.0
Over 4.5 yellow cards	63%	0%

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers

Who is more likely to win Sampdoria vs Arezzo?

Our model: Sampdoria 42%, draw 28%, Arezzo 31%.