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Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Vanspor FK 4.8, Ümraniyespor 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Vanspor FK 1.8, Ümraniyespor 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Vanspor FK win 43%, draw 26%, Ümraniyespor win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Vanspor FK: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Ümraniyespor: last five matches — W-L-D-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Vanspor FK — 18, Ümraniyespor — 17 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Vanspor FK at home and Ümraniyespor away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vanspor FK | Ümraniyespor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 42 |
| Win rate | 38% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 38% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 38% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Vanspor FK won 1, 0 draws, Ümraniyespor won 3. Per match: 2.0 goals, 8.0 corners, 1.0 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Ümraniyespor 1:2 Vanspor FK
- 14.12.2025: Vanspor FK 0:1 Ümraniyespor
- 25.03.2012: Ümraniyespor 2:1 Vanspor FK
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model: Vanspor FK 43%, draw 26%, Ümraniyespor 31%.