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Aarhus vs Lyngby: prediction and statistics
Denmark · Superliga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Aarhus host Lyngby in Superliga on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Aarhus are 8th, Lyngby 10th in a table of 12. Lyngby are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Aarhus arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Lyngby: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Aarhus took 11 from that stretch and Lyngby only 6.
The home record of Aarhus (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 20 wins, 13 draws and 6 defeats in 39 matches, 1.9 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Lyngby find it hard on the road: 2 wins, 6 draws and 15 defeats in 23 away matches, 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
The 22 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Aarhus 10, Lyngby 5, draws 7. Last time out (1 August 2026) it ended Lyngby 2:2 Aarhus. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Aarhus: last five matches — W-D-W-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Lyngby: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Aarhus — 8, Lyngby — 10 (of 12).
Home and away record
Aarhus at home and Lyngby away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aarhus | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-13-6 | 2-6-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Aarhus won 10, 7 draws, Lyngby won 5. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 01.08.2026: Lyngby 2:2 Aarhus
- 03.11.2024: Aarhus 2:1 Lyngby
- 22.09.2024: Lyngby 0:0 Aarhus
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Aarhus the favourite at 55%; a draw is 22%.
- Aarhus should win the corner count: 5.8 expected against 3.8 for Lyngby.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 54% of Aarhus home games and 44% of Lyngby away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Aarhus 5.8, Lyngby 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.9. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 53%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Aarhus 1.6, Lyngby 2.5; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 34%).
Result
Our model: Aarhus win 55%, draw 22%, Lyngby win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 61%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Aarhus | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 51% | 9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 70% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 26% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.6 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.