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AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AFC Wimbledon · Mansfield Town
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: AFC Wimbledon 5.7, Mansfield Town 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: AFC Wimbledon 1.6, Mansfield Town 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: AFC Wimbledon win 35%, draw 26%, Mansfield Town win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
AFC Wimbledon: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Mansfield Town: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
Table: AFC Wimbledon — 11, Mansfield Town — 14 (of 25).
Team statistics for three seasons
AFC Wimbledon at home and Mansfield Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 50 |
| Win rate | 37% | 28% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 37% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 30% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: AFC Wimbledon won 2, 5 draws, Mansfield Town won 5. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.2 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 28.02.2026: Mansfield Town 2:2 AFC Wimbledon
- 13.12.2025: AFC Wimbledon 0:0 Mansfield Town
- 27.01.2024: AFC Wimbledon 2:1 Mansfield Town
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.
Who is more likely to win AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town?
Our model: AFC Wimbledon 35%, draw 26%, Mansfield Town 39%.