Xpect
Ahal vs Şagadam: prediction and statistics
Turkmenistan · Yokary Liga · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 52% of Ahal’s home matches and 39% of Şagadam’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Ahal: 15 wins in 24 meetings with Şagadam.
- Ahal is the more likely winner in our model: 77%, draw 17%.
Result
Final score 0:0.
Result
Our model: Ahal win 77%, draw 17%, Şagadam win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 35%.
Form
Ahal: last five matches — W-L-L-D-W.
Şagadam: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 10 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Ahal — 3, Şagadam — 6 (of 8).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ahal at home and Şagadam away, 2024–2026.
| Ahal | Şagadam | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 64% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 14% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Ahal won 15, 4 draws, Şagadam won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 05.09.2026: Şagadam 2:1 Ahal
- 07.06.2026: Ahal 1:0 Şagadam
- 26.04.2026: Şagadam 1:3 Ahal
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ahal vs Şagadam?
Our model: Ahal 77%, draw 17%, Şagadam 7%.