Xpect
Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Ajax Amsterdam 5.5, NEC Nijmegen 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Ajax Amsterdam 1.5, NEC Nijmegen 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 72%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Ajax Amsterdam win 73%, draw 17%, NEC Nijmegen win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Ajax Amsterdam: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
NEC Nijmegen: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Ajax Amsterdam — 5, NEC Nijmegen — 11 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ajax Amsterdam at home and NEC Nijmegen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ajax Amsterdam | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 37 |
| Win rate | 61% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 65% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 22% |
Head to head
39 meetings in our database: Ajax Amsterdam won 24, 12 draws, NEC Nijmegen won 3. Per match: 2.9 goals, 10.0 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.
- 21.02.2026: Ajax Amsterdam 1:1 NEC Nijmegen
- 20.12.2025: NEC Nijmegen 2:2 Ajax Amsterdam
- 11.05.2025: Ajax Amsterdam 0:3 NEC Nijmegen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.
Who is more likely to win Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Market line without margin: Ajax Amsterdam 73%, draw 17%, NEC Nijmegen 10%.