Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: prediction and statistics

Saudi Arabia · Saudi Pro League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off 17:30 UTC

Before kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Nassr in Saudi Pro League on 20 November 2026. In the standings Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th and Al-Nassr 3rd out of 18 teams. Al-Nassr are part of the leading group.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Al-Nassr: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Al-Ahli Jeddah took 13 from that stretch and Al-Nassr only 7.

Home advantage matters here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have 29 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.9 per game. On the road Al-Nassr are a dangerous side — 27 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats in 39 away matches, 2.6 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.6 per game in home matches of Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3.7 in away matches of Al-Nassr.

The 21 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Al-Ahli Jeddah 3, Al-Nassr 12, draws 6. Last time out (29 April 2026) it ended Al-Nassr 2:0 Al-Ahli Jeddah. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.

8 matches unbeaten · at home
7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home

Al-Nassr: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.

6 wins in a row · all competitions
6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away

Table: Al-Ahli Jeddah — 6, Al-Nassr — 3 (of 18).

Home and away record

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home and Al-Nassr away, 2024/25–2026/27.

	Al-Ahli Jeddah	Al-Nassr
Matches	38	39
Wins · draws · losses	29-6-3	27-4-8
Goals scored per match	2.7	2.6
Goals conceded per match	0.9	1.1

Head to head

21 meetings in our database: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 3, 6 draws, Al-Nassr won 12. Per match: 2.8 goals.

29.04.2026: Al-Nassr 2:0 Al-Ahli Jeddah
02.01.2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3:2 Al-Nassr
23.08.2025: Al-Nassr 2:2 Al-Ahli Jeddah

🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription

Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.

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Key facts

Al-Nassr should win the corner count: 5.5 expected against 3.8 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Al-Ahli Jeddah home games and 77% of Al-Nassr away games.

Corners

55%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.8, Al-Nassr 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 51%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 49%.

Yellow cards

63%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.9, Al-Nassr 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 40%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 60%.

Result

Our model: Al-Ahli Jeddah win 32%, draw 22%, Al-Nassr win 46%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 68%.

Team statistics for three seasons

	Al-Ahli Jeddah	Al-Nassr
Win rate	76%	69%
Over 2.5 goals	71%	77%
Both teams score	58%	64%
Total corners per match	8.9	10.6
Over 9.5 corners	42%	56%
Total yellow cards per match	4.3	4.3
Over 4.5 yellow cards	47%	39%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 10.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.9 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.