Xpect
Al Ain vs Al-Dhafra: prediction and statistics
United Arab Emirates · Pro League · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Al Ain · Al-Dhafra
Before kick-off
Pro League, 19 November 2026: Al Ain are at home to Al-Dhafra. Al Ain sit 3rd in the 14-team table while Al-Dhafra are 12th, so 9 places separate the two sides. Al Ain are part of the leading group. Al-Dhafra are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Al Ain are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against Al-Dhafra recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 8 for Al Ain against 3 for Al-Dhafra.
Al Ain are hard to beat on their own ground — 19 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats in 29 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Al-Dhafra — 2 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats in 16 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.3 on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.0 per game in home matches of Al Ain and 3.1 in away matches of Al-Dhafra.
Head to head, Al Ain have the upper hand: 21 wins in 27 meetings with Al-Dhafra in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Al Ain 5:0 Al-Dhafra. On average these meetings produce 3.7 goals.
Form
Al Ain: last five matches — D-W-L-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Al-Dhafra: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Al Ain — 3, Al-Dhafra — 12 (of 14).
Home and away record
Al Ain at home and Al-Dhafra away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Al Ain | Al-Dhafra | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 29 | 16 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-8-2 | 2-4-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.3 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Al Ain won 21, 2 draws, Al-Dhafra won 4. Per match: 3.7 goals.
- 10.05.2026: Al Ain 5:0 Al-Dhafra
- 08.01.2026: Al-Dhafra 1:2 Al Ain
- 05.02.2023: Al-Dhafra 1:4 Al Ain
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Al Ain is the more likely winner in our model: 85%, draw 11%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 59% of Al Ain’s home matches and 44% of Al-Dhafra’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Al Ain: 21 wins in 27 meetings with Al-Dhafra.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Al Ain 1.7, Al-Dhafra 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 36%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 50%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Al Ain win 85%, draw 11%, Al-Dhafra win 4%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 38%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Al Ain | Al-Dhafra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 66% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 81% | 30% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 2.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 19% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.