Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 6 November 2026 · kick-off 15:30 UTC

Team stats: Al-Karma · Naft Maysan

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 33% of Al-Karma home games and 51% of Naft Maysan away games.
• Our model makes Al-Karma the favourite at 61%; a draw is 24%.

Result

Our model: Al-Karma win 61%, draw 24%, Naft Maysan win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 40%.

Form

Al-Karma: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.

• 9 matches unbeaten · at home
• 6 wins in a row · at home

Naft Maysan: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.

• 6 matches without a win · away
• 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 losses in a row · away

Table: Al-Karma — 1, Naft Maysan — 19 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Al-Karma at home and Naft Maysan away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Al-Karma won 1, 1 draws, Naft Maysan won 2. Per match: 3.2 goals.

• 14.05.2026: Naft Maysan 1:1 Al-Karma
• 21.02.2026: Al-Karma 3:0 Naft Maysan
• 20.02.2025: Naft Maysan 3:2 Al-Karma

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers