Al Merreikh vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Al Merreikh · Etoile de l'Est

Key facts

• Our model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 53%; a draw is 30%.

Result

Our model: Al Merreikh win 53%, draw 30%, Etoile de l'Est win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 28%, both teams to score — 31%.

Form

Al Merreikh: last five matches — L-D-W-W-D.

• 9 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 4 matches unbeaten · at home

Etoile de l'Est: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.

• 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions

Table: Al Merreikh — 17, Etoile de l'Est — 13 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Al Merreikh at home and Etoile de l'Est away, 2024–2026.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers