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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh: prediction and statistics
Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Al Karkh
Key facts
- Our model makes Al Quwa Al Jawiya the favourite at 57%; a draw is 23%.
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya has won 9 of the last 12 meetings with Al Karkh.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of Al Quwa Al Jawiya home games and 39% of Al Karkh away games.
Result
Final score 0:1.
Result
Our model: Al Quwa Al Jawiya win 57%, draw 23%, Al Karkh win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya: last five matches — D-L-D-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Al Karkh: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Al Quwa Al Jawiya — 13, Al Karkh — 18 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home and Al Karkh away, 2024–2026.
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Al Karkh | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 44 |
| Win rate | 56% | 34% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 9, 2 draws, Al Karkh won 1. Per match: 1.9 goals, 0.1 yellow cards.
- 26.03.2026: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1:0 Al Karkh
- 15.09.2025: Al Karkh 0:1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- 14.03.2025: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0:1 Al Karkh
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh?
Our model: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 57%, draw 23%, Al Karkh 20%.