Al Shorta vs Naft: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off 16:00 UTC

Team stats: Al Shorta · Naft

Key facts

• Al Shorta is the more likely winner in our model: 54%, draw 29%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 47% of Al Shorta’s home matches and 30% of Naft’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Al Shorta win 54%, draw 29%, Naft win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 33%.

Form

Al Shorta: last five matches — W-W-D-D-D.

• 14 matches unbeaten · all competitions
• 13 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
• 3 matches without a win · at home

Naft: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.

• 14 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
• 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
• 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions

Table: Al Shorta — 5, Naft — 2 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Al Shorta at home and Naft away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

12 meetings in our database: Al Shorta won 7, 4 draws, Naft won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.

• 01.05.2026: Al Shorta 1:0 Naft
• 21.03.2026: Naft 1:1 Al Shorta
• 15.06.2025: Al Shorta 4:0 Naft

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers