Al Talaba vs Ghaz Al Shamal: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 6 November 2026 · kick-off 13:45 UTC

Team stats: Al Talaba · Ghaz Al Shamal

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 34% of Al Talaba home games and 0% of Ghaz Al Shamal away games.
• Our model sees an open game: Al Talaba 41%, draw 32%, Ghaz Al Shamal 27%.

Result

Our model: Al Talaba win 41%, draw 32%, Ghaz Al Shamal win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 29%, both teams to score — 36%.

Form

Al Talaba: last five matches — D-W-D-D-W.

• 8 matches unbeaten · at home

Ghaz Al Shamal: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.

• 12 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 4 matches without a win · away
• 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Table: Al Talaba — 9, Ghaz Al Shamal — 11 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Al Talaba at home and Ghaz Al Shamal away, 2024–2026.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers