Xpect
Alavés vs Atlético Madrid: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Alavés 5.5, Atlético Madrid 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Alavés 2.1, Atlético Madrid 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 44%.
Result
Market line without margin: Alavés win 23%, draw 26%, Atlético Madrid win 51%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Alavés: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Atlético Madrid: last five matches — W-W-L-L-W.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Alavés — 6, Atlético Madrid — 2 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Alavés at home and Atlético Madrid away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Alavés | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 38% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 29% |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Alavés won 6, 6 draws, Atlético Madrid won 14. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.3 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 18.01.2026: Atlético Madrid 1:0 Alavés
- 30.08.2025: Alavés 1:1 Atlético Madrid
- 03.05.2025: Alavés 0:0 Atlético Madrid
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Market line without margin: Alavés 23%, draw 26%, Atlético Madrid 51%.