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Alianza vs Águila: prediction and statistics
El Salvador · Primera División · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 30% – 26% – 44%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 47% of Alianza’s home matches and 30% of Águila’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 3:2.
Result
Our model: Alianza win 30%, draw 26%, Águila win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Alianza: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Águila: last five matches — D-W-L-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Alianza — 8, Águila — 4 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Alianza at home and Águila away, 2024–2026.
| Alianza | Águila | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 57 |
| Win rate | 56% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
72 meetings in our database: Alianza won 29, 19 draws, Águila won 24. Per match: 2.2 goals, 0.1 yellow cards.
- 06.09.2026: Águila 2:2 Alianza
- 10.05.2026: Alianza 0:2 Águila
- 06.05.2026: Águila 2:1 Alianza
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Alianza vs Águila?
Our model: Alianza 30%, draw 26%, Águila 44%.