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Almagro vs Nueva Chicago: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Primera Nacional · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Almagro 2.2, Nueva Chicago 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: Almagro win 41%, draw 33%, Nueva Chicago win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Form
Almagro: last five matches — D-L-D-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Nueva Chicago: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 10 losses in a row · away
- 9 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Almagro — 25, Nueva Chicago — 27 (of 36).
Team statistics for three seasons
Almagro at home and Nueva Chicago away, 2024–2026.
| Almagro | Nueva Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 53 |
| Win rate | 33% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 31% | 30% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 60% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Almagro won 5, 2 draws, Nueva Chicago won 3. Per match: 2.2 goals, 2.6 yellow cards.
- 11.05.2026: Nueva Chicago 1:2 Almagro
- 22.06.2024: Almagro 1:2 Nueva Chicago
- 03.02.2024: Nueva Chicago 1:0 Almagro
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Almagro vs Nueva Chicago?
Market line without margin: Almagro 41%, draw 33%, Nueva Chicago 26%.