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Almere City FC vs NAC Breda: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Almere City FC · NAC Breda
Before kick-off
Eerste Divisie, 20 November 2026: Almere City FC are at home to NAC Breda. They are neighbours in the table: Almere City FC are 3rd and NAC Breda 4th of 20. Almere City FC are part of the leading group.
Recent results of Almere City FC are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. NAC Breda arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Almere City FC have 16 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats in 28 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. NAC Breda travel well: 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 8 away matches, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.3 per game in home matches of Almere City FC and 3.0 in away matches of NAC Breda.
Head to head there is no clear master over 13 meetings — wins: Almere City FC 4, NAC Breda 7; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 14 March 2025, finished Almere City FC 1:1 NAC Breda. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Almere City FC: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
NAC Breda: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Almere City FC — 3, NAC Breda — 4 (of 20).
Home and away record
Almere City FC at home and NAC Breda away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Almere City FC | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 8 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-3-9 | 4-3-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Almere City FC won 4, 2 draws, NAC Breda won 7. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 14.03.2025: Almere City FC 1:1 NAC Breda
- 30.11.2024: NAC Breda 1:0 Almere City FC
- 07.05.2023: Almere City FC 0:2 NAC Breda
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 68% of Almere City FC’s home matches and 63% of NAC Breda’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from NAC Breda: 6.5 against 4.0 for Almere City FC.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Almere City FC 4.0, NAC Breda 6.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Almere City FC 1.5, NAC Breda 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 20% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Almere City FC win 50%, draw 22%, NAC Breda win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 64%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Almere City FC | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 57% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 72% | 25% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 38% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.