Aluminium Arak vs Mes Shahr-e Babak: prediction and statistics

Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 6 November 2026 · kick-off 12:00 UTC

Team stats: Aluminium Arak · Mes Shahr-e Babak

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 13% of Aluminium Arak home games and 50% of Mes Shahr-e Babak away games.
• Our model makes Aluminium Arak the favourite at 53%; a draw is 30%.

Result

Our model: Aluminium Arak win 53%, draw 30%, Mes Shahr-e Babak win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 28%, both teams to score — 31%.

Form

Aluminium Arak: last five matches — D-D-D-D-D.

• 7 matches unbeaten · at home
• 6 matches without a win · at home
• 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home

Mes Shahr-e Babak: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.

• 11 matches without a win · all competitions
• 4 losses in a row · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions

Table: Aluminium Arak — 7, Mes Shahr-e Babak — 18 (of 18).

Team statistics for three seasons

Aluminium Arak at home and Mes Shahr-e Babak away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers