Xpect
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 12 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: America de Cali 5.0, Independiente Medellin 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: America de Cali 2.5, Independiente Medellin 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 77%, typical match 82%.
Form
America de Cali: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Independiente Medellin: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: America de Cali — 2, Independiente Medellin — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
America de Cali at home and Independiente Medellin away, 2024–2026.
| America de Cali | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 64 | 60 |
| Win rate | 64% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 37% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 61% | 72% |
Head to head
30 meetings in our database: America de Cali won 11, 4 draws, Independiente Medellin won 15. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.5 corners, 6.2 yellow cards.
- 30.03.2026: Independiente Medellin 2:1 America de Cali
- 02.12.2025: Independiente Medellin 1:1 America de Cali
- 27.11.2025: America de Cali 2:1 Independiente Medellin
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 60%.