APR vs Gasogi United: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 3 November 2026 · kick-off 17:00 UTC

Key facts

• APR is the more likely winner in our model: 73%, draw 19%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 52% of APR’s home matches and 33% of Gasogi United’s away matches over three seasons.
• Draws are common in this fixture: 5 of 11 meetings.

Result

Our model: APR win 73%, draw 19%, Gasogi United win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 32%.

Form

APR: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.

• 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Gasogi United: last five matches — L-L-W-D-D.

• 5 matches without a win · all competitions
• 3 matches unbeaten · away

Table: APR — 12, Gasogi United — 15 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

APR at home and Gasogi United away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

11 meetings in our database: APR won 6, 5 draws, Gasogi United won 0. Per match: 1.5 goals.

• 04.02.2026: Gasogi United 0:3 APR
• 20.12.2025: APR 2:0 Gasogi United
• 14.03.2025: Gasogi United 0:0 APR

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers