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Arkadag vs Nebitci: prediction and statistics
Turkmenistan · Yokary Liga · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Our model makes Arkadag the favourite at 93%; a draw is 6%.
- Arkadag has won 14 of the last 14 meetings with Nebitci.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 91% of Arkadag home games and 60% of Nebitci away games.
Result
Final score 3:0.
Result
Our model: Arkadag win 93%, draw 6%, Nebitci win 1%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 24%.
Form
Arkadag: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 15 matches unbeaten · at home
- 11 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Nebitci: last five matches — D-W-D-L-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Arkadag — 1, Nebitci — 4 (of 8).
Team statistics for three seasons
Arkadag at home and Nebitci away, 2024–2026.
| Arkadag | Nebitci | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Win rate | 98% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 4.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 91% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Arkadag won 14, 0 draws, Nebitci won 0. Per match: 4.6 goals.
- 05.09.2026: Nebitci 2:4 Arkadag
- 07.06.2026: Arkadag 4:1 Nebitci
- 26.04.2026: Nebitci 0:2 Arkadag
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Arkadag vs Nebitci?
Our model: Arkadag 93%, draw 6%, Nebitci 1%.