Xpect
Armenia vs Latvia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Armenia 5.2, Latvia 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Armenia 2.0, Latvia 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Armenia win 51%, draw 28%, Latvia win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Armenia: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Latvia: last five matches — D-L-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Armenia at home and Latvia away, 2024–2026.
| Armenia | Latvia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| Win rate | 25% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 27% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 18% | 22% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Armenia won 3, 0 draws, Latvia won 1. Per match: 3.2 goals, 8.8 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 17.11.2024: Latvia 1:2 Armenia
- 07.09.2024: Armenia 4:1 Latvia
- 12.10.2023: Latvia 2:0 Armenia
Referee
Martin Matosa: 49 matches in our database, 4.6 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 45% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Armenia vs Latvia?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Armenia vs Latvia?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Armenia vs Latvia?
Market line without margin: Armenia 51%, draw 28%, Latvia 22%.