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Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück: prediction and statistics
Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Arminia Bielefeld 6.0, VfL Osnabrück 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Arminia Bielefeld 1.9, VfL Osnabrück 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Arminia Bielefeld win 38%, draw 24%, VfL Osnabrück win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
VfL Osnabrück: last five matches — W-W-D-W-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Arminia Bielefeld — 13, VfL Osnabrück — 8 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Arminia Bielefeld at home and VfL Osnabrück away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 3 |
| Win rate | 40% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 45% | 67% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Arminia Bielefeld won 5, 4 draws, VfL Osnabrück won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.3 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 15.03.2025: VfL Osnabrück 0:1 Arminia Bielefeld
- 20.10.2024: Arminia Bielefeld 3:1 VfL Osnabrück
- 17.05.2020: Arminia Bielefeld 1:1 VfL Osnabrück
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model: Arminia Bielefeld 38%, draw 24%, VfL Osnabrück 38%.