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Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC: prediction and statistics
Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Holstein Kiel 5.8, Hertha BSC 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Holstein Kiel 2.4, Hertha BSC 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 55%, typical match 45%.
Form
Holstein Kiel: last five matches — W-D-D-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
Hertha BSC: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 15 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Holstein Kiel — 16, Hertha BSC — 1 (of 19).
Team statistics for three seasons
Holstein Kiel at home and Hertha BSC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Holstein Kiel | Hertha BSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 38 |
| Win rate | 30% | 53% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 63% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Holstein Kiel won 1, 1 draws, Hertha BSC won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals, 8.8 corners, 7.3 yellow cards.
- 25.04.2026: Hertha BSC 0:1 Holstein Kiel
- 29.11.2025: Holstein Kiel 0:1 Hertha BSC
- 01.03.2024: Hertha BSC 2:2 Holstein Kiel
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.