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Arouca vs Estrela: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Arouca 5.2, Estrela 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Arouca 2.5, Estrela 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 74%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Arouca win 43%, draw 28%, Estrela win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Arouca: last five matches — D-W-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Estrela: last five matches — L-D-D-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Arouca — 5, Estrela — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Arouca at home and Estrela away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arouca | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 38% | 14% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 68% | 62% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Arouca won 3, 1 draws, Estrela won 2. Per match: 2.3 goals, 8.2 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Arouca 1:0 Estrela
- 07.12.2025: Estrela 3:1 Arouca
- 19.04.2025: Arouca 1:0 Estrela
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Arouca vs Estrela?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Arouca vs Estrela?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 57%.
Who is more likely to win Arouca vs Estrela?
Market line without margin: Arouca 43%, draw 28%, Estrela 29%.