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Arsenal vs Leeds United: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Arsenal 5.8, Leeds United 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Arsenal 1.6, Leeds United 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Arsenal win 67%, draw 21%, Leeds United win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Arsenal: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Leeds United: last five matches — D-W-W-D-L.
Table: Arsenal — 2, Leeds United — 5 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Arsenal at home and Leeds United away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arsenal | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 21 |
| Win rate | 70% | 14% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 29% |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Arsenal won 22, 4 draws, Leeds United won 7. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.3 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 31.01.2026: Leeds United 0:4 Arsenal
- 23.08.2025: Arsenal 5:0 Leeds United
- 01.04.2023: Arsenal 4:1 Leeds United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Market line without margin: Arsenal 67%, draw 21%, Leeds United 12%.