AS Kigali vs Mukura: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 3 November 2026 · kick-off 14:00 UTC

Key facts

• 8 of the 15 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 29% of AS Kigali home games and 31% of Mukura away games.
• Our model sees an open game: AS Kigali 34%, draw 30%, Mukura 36%.

Result

Our model: AS Kigali win 34%, draw 30%, Mukura win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 42%.

Form

AS Kigali: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.

• 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Mukura: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.

• 7 matches in a row both teams scored · away
• 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions

Table: AS Kigali — 18, Mukura — 3 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

AS Kigali at home and Mukura away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

15 meetings in our database: AS Kigali won 4, 8 draws, Mukura won 3. Per match: 2.0 goals.

• 03.04.2026: AS Kigali 1:1 Mukura
• 25.10.2025: Mukura 2:0 AS Kigali
• 26.04.2025: AS Kigali 1:1 Mukura

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers