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Atalanta vs Pafos: prediction and statistics
Europe · Conference League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Atalanta 5.5, Pafos 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Atalanta 1.9, Pafos 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atalanta win 64%, draw 22%, Pafos win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Atalanta: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Pafos: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Atalanta at home and Pafos away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atalanta | Pafos | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 9 |
| Win rate | 0% | 11% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 78% |
| Total corners per match | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 6.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 78% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atalanta vs Pafos?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 45%.
How many yellow cards in Atalanta vs Pafos?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.
Who is more likely to win Atalanta vs Pafos?
Market line without margin: Atalanta 64%, draw 22%, Pafos 14%.