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Atlante FC vs Monterrey: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Atlante FC 5.1, Monterrey 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Atlante FC 2.0, Monterrey 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atlante FC win 29%, draw 26%, Monterrey win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Atlante FC: last five matches — W-D-D-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
Monterrey: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Atlante FC — 14, Monterrey — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atlante FC at home and Monterrey away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atlante FC | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 43 |
| Win rate | 0% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 75% | 37% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 40% |
Referee
Mario Terrazas Chavez: 22 matches in our database, 4.5 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.4); over 4.5 cards in 32% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Atlante FC vs Monterrey?
Market line without margin: Atlante FC 29%, draw 26%, Monterrey 44%.