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Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 13 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Atlético Madrid 5.3, Manchester United 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Atlético Madrid 1.8, Manchester United 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atlético Madrid win 43%, draw 25%, Manchester United win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
Atlético Madrid: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Manchester United: last five matches — W-D-L-D-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Atlético Madrid at home and Manchester United away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atlético Madrid | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | — |
| Win rate | 62% | — |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | — |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% | — |
| Both teams score | 100% | — |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | — |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Atlético Madrid won 2, 1 draws, Manchester United won 1. Per match: 1.8 goals, 9.0 corners, 6.5 yellow cards.
- 01.08.2026: Manchester United 2:1 Atlético Madrid
- 30.07.2022: Atlético Madrid 1:0 Manchester United
- 15.03.2022: Manchester United 0:1 Atlético Madrid
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United?
Market line without margin: Atlético Madrid 43%, draw 25%, Manchester United 32%.