Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors: prediction and statistics

South America · Copa Sudamericana · 21 November 2026 · kick-off 21:00 UTC

Before kick-off

Copa Sudamericana, 21 November 2026: Atletico-MG are at home to Boca Juniors.

Recent results of Atletico-MG are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Boca Juniors arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches.

Atletico-MG are hard to beat on their own ground — 10 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 13 home matches (2024–2026), with 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. The away record of Boca Juniors: 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats in 9 matches, with 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.

This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 4 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 20 July 2021, finished Atletico-MG 0:0 Boca Juniors. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.

Form

Atletico-MG: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.

7 matches without a win · all competitions
5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions

Boca Juniors: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.

13 matches unbeaten · away
6 wins in a row · all competitions
4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Home and away record

Atletico-MG at home and Boca Juniors away, 2024–2026.

	Atletico-MG	Boca Juniors
Matches	13	9
Wins · draws · losses	10-2-1	3-3-3
Goals scored per match	2.1	1.4
Goals conceded per match	0.8	1.1

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Atletico-MG won 0, 2 draws, Boca Juniors won 2. Per match: 1.8 goals.

20.07.2021: Atletico-MG 0:0 Boca Juniors
13.07.2021: Boca Juniors 0:0 Atletico-MG
05.10.1978: Boca Juniors 3:1 Atletico-MG

🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription

Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.

Open in the app →Download for Android

Key facts

Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 4 meetings.
Our model expects more corners from Boca Juniors: 6.2 against 3.4 for Atletico-MG.
No clear favourite in our model: 29% – 29% – 42%.
Over 2.5 goals happened in 62% of Atletico-MG’s home matches and 56% of Boca Juniors’s away matches over three seasons.

Corners

51%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Atletico-MG 3.4, Boca Juniors 6.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 46%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.

Yellow cards

51%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Atletico-MG 2.4, Boca Juniors 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 56%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 44%.

Result

Our model: Atletico-MG win 29%, draw 29%, Boca Juniors win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.

Team statistics for three seasons

	Atletico-MG	Boca Juniors
Win rate	77%	33%
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%
Both teams score	54%	56%
Total corners per match	8.0	9.4
Over 9.5 corners	31%	44%
Total yellow cards per match	4.8	5.8
Over 4.5 yellow cards	54%	56%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 7.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.5 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.