Xpect
Atletico Mitre vs San Telmo: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Primera Nacional · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Atletico Mitre 1.9, San Telmo 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 46%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atletico Mitre win 52%, draw 28%, San Telmo win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 39%.
Form
Atletico Mitre: last five matches — D-W-D-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
San Telmo: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Atletico Mitre — 29, San Telmo — 33 (of 36).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Mitre at home and San Telmo away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Mitre | San Telmo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 52 |
| Win rate | 41% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 31% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 40% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Atletico Mitre won 3, 3 draws, San Telmo won 0. Per match: 1.2 goals, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 09.05.2026: San Telmo 0:0 Atletico Mitre
- 24.08.2025: Atletico Mitre 3:0 San Telmo
- 20.04.2025: San Telmo 0:0 Atletico Mitre
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Atletico Mitre vs San Telmo?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico Mitre vs San Telmo?
Market line without margin: Atletico Mitre 52%, draw 28%, San Telmo 19%.