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Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 8 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Atletico Nacional 5.5, Deportes Tolima 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Atletico Nacional 2.3, Deportes Tolima 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 82%.
Form
Atletico Nacional: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Deportes Tolima: last five matches — L-W-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Atletico Nacional — 1, Deportes Tolima — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Nacional at home and Deportes Tolima away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 64 | 69 |
| Win rate | 67% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 56% |
Head to head
37 meetings in our database: Atletico Nacional won 12, 8 draws, Deportes Tolima won 17. Per match: 2.4 goals, 10.3 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 23.05.2026: Atletico Nacional 3:1 Deportes Tolima
- 16.05.2026: Deportes Tolima 0:1 Atletico Nacional
- 02.03.2026: Deportes Tolima 1:0 Atletico Nacional
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.