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Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 8 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Atletico Paranaense 5.7, Atletico-MG 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Atletico Paranaense 1.9, Atletico-MG 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atletico Paranaense win 46%, draw 29%, Atletico-MG win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Atletico Paranaense: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Atletico-MG: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Atletico Paranaense — 3, Atletico-MG — 7 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Paranaense at home and Atletico-MG away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Paranaense | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 52 |
| Win rate | 48% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 48% |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Atletico Paranaense won 13, 2 draws, Atletico-MG won 18. Per match: 2.2 goals, 11.3 corners, 4.6 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Atletico-MG 2:1 Atletico Paranaense
- 08.12.2024: Atletico-MG 1:0 Atletico Paranaense
- 16.11.2024: Atletico Paranaense 1:0 Atletico-MG
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Market line without margin: Atletico Paranaense 46%, draw 29%, Atletico-MG 26%.