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Atletico Torque vs Penarol: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 30 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards: Atletico Torque 2.8, Penarol 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 69% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 69%, typical match 64%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atletico Torque win 37%, draw 27%, Penarol win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Atletico Torque: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Penarol: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Atletico Torque — 2, Penarol — 1 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Torque at home and Penarol away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Torque | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 24 | 36 |
| Win rate | 46% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | 11.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 58% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Atletico Torque won 2, 2 draws, Penarol won 5. Per match: 2.2 goals, 13.0 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 07.02.2026: Penarol 3:1 Atletico Torque
- 17.05.2025: Penarol 2:1 Atletico Torque
- 03.07.2023: Penarol 2:0 Atletico Torque
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 69%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Market line without margin: Atletico Torque 37%, draw 27%, Penarol 37%.