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Bahia vs Mirassol: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Bahia 6.1, Mirassol 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 62% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Bahia 2.1, Mirassol 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 72%.
Result
Market line without margin: Bahia win 56%, draw 25%, Mirassol win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Bahia: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Mirassol: last five matches — D-D-L-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Bahia — 5, Mirassol — 15 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bahia at home and Mirassol away, 2024–2026.
| Bahia | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 32 |
| Win rate | 60% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 59% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Bahia won 1, 1 draws, Mirassol won 1. Per match: 3.7 goals, 10.0 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 11.04.2026: Mirassol 1:2 Bahia
- 31.08.2025: Mirassol 5:1 Bahia
- 13.04.2025: Bahia 1:1 Mirassol
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our model expects 10.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 62%.
How many yellow cards in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 54%.
Who is more likely to win Bahia vs Mirassol?
Market line without margin: Bahia 56%, draw 25%, Mirassol 20%.