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Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Barry Town 2.2, GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 37%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 56%.
Result
Market line without margin: Barry Town win 26%, draw 25%, GAP Connah S Quay FC win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Barry Town: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
GAP Connah S Quay FC: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
Table: Barry Town — 5, GAP Connah S Quay FC — 4 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Barry Town at home and GAP Connah S Quay FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Barry Town | GAP Connah S Quay FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 36 |
| Win rate | 53% | 44% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 44% |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Barry Town won 7, 7 draws, GAP Connah S Quay FC won 13. Per match: 2.6 goals, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 29.03.2026: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1:1 Barry Town
- 21.02.2026: Barry Town 1:0 GAP Connah S Quay FC
- 03.01.2026: GAP Connah S Quay FC 3:1 Barry Town
Referee
J. A. Jones: 45 matches in our database, 4.6 yellow cards per match (competition average 3.6); over 4.5 cards in 49% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Market line without margin: Barry Town 26%, draw 25%, GAP Connah S Quay FC 49%.