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Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Benfica 5.8, Vitória de Guimaraes 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Benfica 2.1, Vitória de Guimaraes 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Benfica win 73%, draw 18%, Vitória de Guimaraes win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Benfica: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Vitória de Guimaraes: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
Table: Benfica — 2, Vitória de Guimaraes — 14 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Benfica at home and Vitória de Guimaraes away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Benfica | Vitória de Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 73% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 65% |
Head to head
53 meetings in our database: Benfica won 40, 9 draws, Vitória de Guimaraes won 4. Per match: 2.5 goals, 10.9 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.
- 21.03.2026: Benfica 3:0 Vitória de Guimaraes
- 01.11.2025: Vitória de Guimaraes 0:3 Benfica
- 19.04.2025: Vitória de Guimaraes 0:3 Benfica
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?
Market line without margin: Benfica 73%, draw 18%, Vitória de Guimaraes 9%.