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Black Man Warrior vs Paynesville: prediction and statistics
Liberia · LFA First Division · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Black Man Warrior · Paynesville
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Black Man Warrior home games and 63% of Paynesville away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Black Man Warrior 37%, draw 27%, Paynesville 36%.
Result
Final score 3:1.
Result
Our model: Black Man Warrior win 37%, draw 27%, Paynesville win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Black Man Warrior: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 8 matches without a win · at home
Paynesville: last five matches — D-L-D-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Black Man Warrior — 13, Paynesville — 6 (of 15).
Team statistics for three seasons
Black Man Warrior at home and Paynesville away, 2023–2025.
| Black Man Warrior | Paynesville | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 26 | 40 |
| Win rate | 19% | 38% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Black Man Warrior won 2, 0 draws, Paynesville won 2. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 25.01.2026: Black Man Warrior 0:1 Paynesville
- 12.11.2025: Paynesville 1:0 Black Man Warrior
- 20.04.2025: Black Man Warrior 4:0 Paynesville
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Black Man Warrior vs Paynesville?
Our model: Black Man Warrior 37%, draw 27%, Paynesville 36%.