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Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Boca Juniors 5.3, Union Santa Fe 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Boca Juniors 2.2, Union Santa Fe 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 74%.
Result
Market line without margin: Boca Juniors win 60%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Boca Juniors: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 15 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Union Santa Fe: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Boca Juniors — 6, Union Santa Fe — 14 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Boca Juniors at home and Union Santa Fe away, 2024–2026.
| Boca Juniors | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 44 |
| Win rate | 57% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 66% | 41% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Boca Juniors won 6, 5 draws, Union Santa Fe won 4. Per match: 2.3 goals, 7.8 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 16.03.2026: Union Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
- 18.07.2025: Boca Juniors 1:1 Union Santa Fe
- 29.01.2025: Union Santa Fe 1:1 Boca Juniors
Referee
Sebastian Nicolas Martinez: 61 matches in our database, 5.9 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.1); over 4.5 cards in 75% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Market line without margin: Boca Juniors 60%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe 14%.